Publications

  ABSTRACT In this paper, Magnus Holm and Hans-Peter Bermin revisit the foundational Kelly trading strategy in the context of modern financial markets where asset prices can experience discrete jumps—sudden changes in value that are not captured by traditional continuous models. While classical results show that the Kelly strategy (which aims to maximise long-term capital…

A new working paper by Dr Hans-Peter Bermin (Chief Risk Officer, Hilbert Group) and Dr Magnus Holm (Co-Founder, Hilbert Group) shows that the maximum drawdown of a standard asset-price model converges to a Gumbel distribution, meaning extreme losses follow a predictable statistical pattern. This insight provides practical tools for estimating worst-case drawdowns over long horizons and strengthens the quantitative foundations behind Hilbert’s…